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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Declines
13 May, 2015



At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.1 percent in March to 98.3 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in February, and a 0.5 percent increase in January.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan decreased in March. The growth of the LEI, while considerably improved compared to six months ago, has weakened in recent months. Similarly, the six-month growth rate of the CEI remains in positive territory, but has also slowed in March. Taken together, the behavior of both indexes suggests that the recovery in current economic activity will continue, but growth is unlikely to accelerate in the short-term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world\'s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

   

2015                          6-month 

                                                              Jan           Feb           Mar             Sep to Mar
   
Leading Economic Index (LEI)    103.5 p      103.5 p       103.1p
   
Percent Change                              -0.1 p          0.0 p          -0.4 p            0.4p

Diffusion                                            70.0             70.0           65.0              80.0
   


Coincident Economic Index (CEI)      98.7 p     98.4 p    98.3p
   
Percent Change                                     0.5 p       -0.3 p       -0.1p      0.5p

Diffusion                                                   87.5         25.0         37.5     100.0
   
   

n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised
   
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
  
Source:  The Conference Board               All Rights Reserved